Topic: Flood Risk, Housing Market and Spatial Inequality in the UK

Speaker: Assistant Professor Allan Beltran, University of Birmingham, UK

Host: Professor Zhang Dayong from RIEM

Time: April 14th (Tuesday) 10:00-12:00

Location: Conference Room 1211, Gezhi Building, Liulin Campus

Speaker Introduction

Allan Beltran is currently an Assistant Professor of Environmental Economics in the Department of Economics at the University of Birmingham in the UK, and also serves as the Director of Undergraduate Programs. His research focuses on the economic impacts of climate change, with a particular emphasis on natural disasters, environmental risks, and externalities. Recent research has covered the impact of flood and wildfire risks on the housing market, the effects of climate change on agriculture, and its association with health. He used applied econometric methods combined with spatial data to analyze how economic outcomes respond to environmental shocks, and his results were published in top journals in the field of environmental and resource economics.

Prior to joining the University of Birmingham, Dr. Beltran served as a research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He holds a PhD in Economics and a Master of Science in Environmental Economics from the University of Birmingham, as well as a Bachelor of Science in Applied Econometrics and Economics from the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

Abstract

This lecture is based on data from the UK housing market from 2010 to 2018, exploring the core issue of whether there are differences in the impact of nearby floods without direct property damage on the housing market of communities with different levels of poverty.

The study focuses on "adjacent floods without direct property damage" and compares the market response of affluent and poor communities in the UK, with the core indicators being the time of sale and housing prices. The main findings are as follows:

Commonality: Nearby floods generally prolong the sale time of houses, reduce transaction efficiency, and are not related to the level of community poverty.

Difference: Poorer communities: House prices decline as sales time increases, due to factors such as "risk stigmatization" and weaker bargaining power of sellers. Wealthy communities: Only the sales time has been extended, while housing prices remain stable.

The study quantified the housing price discount caused by the "risk stigmatization" of floods: 3.8% in impoverished communities and 1.2% in affluent communities. The results indicate that housing market liquidity is a key transmission channel for the exacerbation of spatial inequality caused by the impact of climate change.